Things are really getting creepy, you can now buy software to spy on other people’s phone calls, access public cameras and photograph just about anything you like all on your cell phone. We are beginning to wonder where this invasion of privacy will lead. Not that we care if you want to hear us barking at our kids or placing an order at the local eatery, we don’t. It is the “Big Brother Is Watching You” thing that has us weirded out. Perhaps a new company will emerge that can block this invasion into our lives.
You ever wonder why your health insurance costs keep going thru the roof. Recently, we received a notation from our insurance company for a visit to a local professional. The visit was minor, and not an emergency, took about two minuets from the hello to the goodbye with no prescription just a minor adjustment. Our insurance company was charged $250 for an emergency visit, naturally the insurance company allowed $32 for the visit. This is a problem and it is not a first occurrence. This has happened repeatedly and in different venues. So, not only does our insurance cover the cost of the uninsured (this is calculated by the hospitals for those patients that never pay their bills into the cost of the emergency room and hospitalization of those patients that do pay their bills) into the charge for the insured, but also charges us for these sorts of inflated bills sent in by the professionals. Isn’t it time to revolt?
Deceit deception and disaster….check out the debt clock at this web page. http://www.usdebtclock.org It is frightening. Last time we looked the per person debt was about $27,000 a head. Now, it is well over $35,000 per taxpayer.
Just on schedule and still continuing, the green shoots of optimism have turned to weeds of worry strangling the green shoots of prosperity. So now what? Well, we could retreat to the depths of depression or, find stability and move forward creating a base from which to bounce. We feel that the public and professional investors have jumped too far to the side of depression and doom for any real problem to crop up. We are speaking in agricultural terms, are we not? This dust bowl will find new footing and will right itself. Just think about it, should the market actually stage a small but noteworthy rally, we will have the “portfolio manager lemming effect.” That is the portfolio managers who, were for the most part late to the last rally, will jump in with both feet not wishing to fall behind again. This will cause the bears to retreat the bulls to run on Wall Street, not Pamplona Spain this time with about the same duration, minus some of the goring’s seen in
Spain.
Tuesday: June PPI is released at 8:30, June retail sales are released at 8:30, May business inventories are released at 10:00 and Goldman, Intel, JnJ, etc release earnings. Wednesday: June CPI, June Industrial production/capacity utilization is released at 9:15 and the minutes of the June FOMC meeting are released. Thursday: More earnings from biggies like IBM, GOOGLE and JPMorgan, and July Philadelphia Fed Survey of business conditions is released at 10:00. Friday: June housing starts are released at 10:00.
The US Dollar Index rallied in the Friday session but failed to remove the Thursday high or low, leaving an inside day on the chart. The market looks as though it is stuck in a trading range, the widest of which is from 81.795 to 78.385. There are narrower bands from 81.268 to 79.565. Both the stochastic indicator and our own indicator are curling to the upside and will issue a buy-signal in the Monday session. The RSI is already pointing to the upside, however; the Thomas DeMark Expert indicator is issuing a solid sell-signal. The 5-day moving average is at 80.609. The top of the Bollinger band is at 81.466 and the lower edge is seen at 79.784. The 20 day moving average is at 80.625. Look at these numbers, obviously the five day and the twenty day moving average numbers are almost identical then, if you look at the Bollinger band, you will notice that is almost the same as the initial trading band for the US Dollar index. This tells the viewer that these numbers are very important and that a breech of these numbers should be respected. The US Dollar index is below the Ichimuko clouds on the daily and the monthly time-frame but in the clouds for the weekly time-frame. The chart looks as though it is coiling both on the daily and the weekly time-frame. The uptrend line is at 80.073 for the Monday session.
The S&P 500 futures contract retreated in the Friday session and remained below the downtrend line. The stochastic indicator, our own indicator and the RSI are all pointing lower and oversold. The Thomas DeMark Expert indicator is issuing a buy-signal from oversold levels. The downtrend line is at 871.81 for the Monday session. The 5-day moving average is at 880.35. The top of the Bollinger band is at 941.96 and the lower edge is seen at 866.18. We are in the Ichimuko clouds on the daily chart and below the clouds for both the weekly and monthly time-frames. Both the weekly and the monthly chart look as though this index has made and continues to make a rounding top. The daily just looks like it is probing for a level of support. Tuesday is the Bradley planetary barometer indicator turning date. This week we have both PPI and CPI naturally, we do not expect to see inflation.
The NASDAQ 100 rallied in the Friday session outperforming both the S&P 500 and the Russell 2000. Both the Russell 2000 and the NASDAQ 100 were positive on the day. It really looked and felt like a summer Friday with little interest in trading and much interest in the weekend activities and get-away plans. The 5-day moving average is at 1417.10. The top of the Bollinger band is at 1497.88 and the lower edge is seen at 1399.25. The daily, weekly and monthly charts are in the Ichimuko clouds. The indicators are all pointing higher but without conviction. So long as we do not close below 1392.50 we will be inclined to believe that the market will rally.
The Russell 2000 enjoyed a slightly positive day on Friday. The Wednesday low of 470.60 held for the session but continues to loom on the chart as a warning for bulls. Interestingly, on the Wednesday low which was markedly lower than the June 23, 2009 low, the stochastic indicator, our own indicator and the Thomas DeMark Expert indicator make a higher low. Either the market will promptly fall apart and print a new lower low or this could be a warning shot above the bear’s heads. With in a day or so, we certainly will see which it is. The low of Wednesday was 470.60. The 5-day moving average is at 481.96. The top of the Bollinger band is at 525.55 and the lower edge is seen at 473.31. We are inside the Ichimuko clouds for the daily time-frame and just below the clouds for the weekly time frame. The weekly chart shows that we are below the downtrend line which, is at 509.80. It is important for this index to stay above 469.60 on the weekly chart or risk a trip to the March lows. The daily chart is less scary than the weekly chart with plenty of support levels on the way down. As to the upside, we need to close above 503.21 and then 509.80 to get the bulls back in the game and to begin to worry the shorts.
Crude oil can’t get out of its own way. The market is tremendously oversold but continues to look as though it could go a bit lower. We are in the Ichimuko clouds for the daily and the monthly time-frame but below the clouds for the weekly time-frame. The 5-day moving average is at 61.484. The top of the Bollinger band is at 75.30 and the lower edge is seen at 59.96, a level above the close of the Friday session. It is difficult for the market to stay below the lower or upper Bollinger bands for more than two or three days. All the indicators that we follow are oversold and all continue to issue a sell-signal. The next level of support is the 56-57 area and then the 52-54 level.
Gold is feeling the pressure of the deflationary chatter from the markets. We have a doji candle on the chart as a result of the Friday trading session. Doji candles indicate that the bulls and bears were evenly matched and nobody won the battle. It also indicates that we could be in a period of transition and might likely change directions. We are below the Ichimuko clouds for the daily time-frame but above the clouds both the weekly and monthly time-frames. The 5-day moving average is at 918.28. The top of the Bollinger band is at 948.16 and the lower edge is seen at 911.65. All the indicators that we follow herein are oversold and pointing lower. We need to close above 926.91 to get the bulls back on board and scare some of the shorts into covering their positions.